Through a Glass Darkly - A complex systems approach to Futures

Summary

Cynefin creator Dave Snowden argues that futures work too often neglects “the ‘thick present’ and its evolutionary possibilities”. Even accurate forecasts fail when we can’t act on weak signals. His ‘Estuarine Mapping’ charts the present’s terrain and energy, so we can “intervene to change the dispositional state of the system so it is easier to achieve a desired outcome”.

Rationale

Like Snowden, one of our interviewees, we start by understanding how a culture is disposed – where the energy is, where the cracks are – rather than forecasting where it’s heading.